News

The World In A Week – Interim Update

18th June 2020

It appears to be more of the same for this mid-week update.  The predictable cycle of forward guidance regarding more economic stimuli, in order to combat the fear of unemployment numbers, and the containment of COVID-19.  The desired outcome being sufficient reassurance to consumers to help ignite the economic bounce back.

US sales data published earlier in the week was an early indication of the resilience of consumers, showing a positive surprise from the forced savings that have been accrued during lockdown.  American consumers pushed May’s retail sales report to a record 17.7%, smashing through the expected rebound of 8.4%.  This has seen over 60% of the loss accumulated through January to April recouped in May.

However, we must remember that the bounce was from a depressed seven-year low and the retail sales trend at an annual rate is still significantly in the red.  Context is everything, especially during more volatile periods.

Monitoring the reaction of markets to the rising number of virus cases is critical, as straight-line extrapolation creates opportunities, especially when central banks and governments are willing to underwrite extreme volatility.

Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete.  Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 18th June 2020.